Tokyo 2020 women’s gymnastics preview: Biles headlines field as US women look to three-peat

The women’s gymnastics qualification round at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics is set for Sunday, July 25 in Japan, with Team USA competing in subdivision 3 at 2:10 a.m. ET/3:10 p.m. JST.

While the stateside women are expected to dominate the women’s gymnastics field, there are other key athletes and nations to look out for as well.

Like the men’s competition, Tokyo is expected to play witness to many historic medals and new skills for the women.

Biles, US to run away with record-breaking victories

As Simone Biles gears up for her second Olympics, she brings with her a long to-do list of historic medal opportunities, both as an individual and with her team.

Entering Tokyo, the 24-year-old has five Olympic medals under her belt, including four gold and one bronze.

Here are some potential record-breaking scenarios to look out for from the greatest of all time:

• Biles needs 4+ gold medals to break the all-time gold medal record by a U.S. women, which is currently held by swimmer Jenny Thompson at 8.
• She needs 2 medals to tie and 3 medals to break the all-time record for most Olympic medals by a U.S. gymnast, currently held by Shannon Miller at 7.
• If she wins 5 gold medals, she could break the record for most gold medals won in a single Games by a female, as well as most total collected gold medals by any female athlete

With three stellar gymnasts joining Biles in the team competition – Sunisa Lee, Jordan Chiles and Grace McCallum – Team USA, as a whole, could also break some records in Tokyo:

• A win by the US would mark a third-straight team gold medal for the country, which has not been done since the Soviet Union in 1952-80, when that women’s team won eight-straight team golds.
• With Suni Lee in gold medal contention on uneven bars, and Biles covering the rest of the field, the U.S. women could be the first team to ever win gold on all six modern women’s events.

Battle for silver and bronze heats up as US predicted to have a “four fall buffer” in final

The U.S. will be nearly unstoppable as a team in Japan, bringing new skills and its trademark difficulty to this meet. Momentum is also on its side, as the country has not lost a World or Olympic team final since 2010.

The Balance Beam Situation’s Spencer Barnes predicted about a four fall buffer for the U.S. women, meaning that they could afford four falls and still beat out any other country’s hit performance.

Nations likely to join the US on the podium include China and the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC). The two are expected to battle throughout the team final, with China’s greatest chance to beat the ROC out on beam.

The last two Olympic silver medals have gone to the Russian women, and they have been on almost every podium since 1952, while China is a newer powerhouse, finishing on two of the last three podiums.

The ROC is easily the youngest team of the top three, checking in two 16-year-olds and a 17-year-old to join four-time World Champion Angelina Melnikova – the only Olympic veteran of the team.

The ROC’s youngest member, Viktoria Listunova, became eligible for the Games as a result of the year postponement and is now projected to lead the ROC and contend for an all-around medal.

For China, headliners include 2019 World all-around silver medalist Tang Xijing and 2018 World bronze medalist Zhang Jin. Their team also features a rookie, 17-year-old Ou Yushan, who is one to watch on beam.

Biles eyes second straight all-around title

Biles already made history in Rio by bringing home the U.S. women’s fourth consecutive all-around title, a streak that started back in 2004 with Carly Patterson.

With the highest difficulty scores in the world on floor, vault and beam, her cushion for gold is comfortable. In addition, she’s expected to perform at least three original skills, two on floor and one on beam, en route to a dominating victory.

Like 2016, the all-around competition is only really a “competition” for silver and bronze. The biggest battle in qualifying will be between the rest of the U.S. women, as only one other gymnast can qualify to the final alongside Biles.

Top contenders for that second berth include 18-year-old Suni Lee and 20-year-old Jordan Chiles. While Lee excels on bars, she has also posted some outstanding all-around scores this year. One of those performances came on day two of Olympic Trials when she topped Biles, who made two major errors that day.

Chiles, Biles’ training partner at World Champions Centre, could also qualify to the all-around final after a tremendously consistent 2021. The UCLA commit 24/24 of her routines so far this season.

As for the other countries, the ROC will see a battle between three of their gymnasts for the two all-around spots. Rookie Listunova is likely to be one, accompanied by either Urazova or Melnikova. Between the three, one of them is likely to join the Americans on the podium.

China’s best chance of medaling comes from 20-year-old Zhang, who seems to be the country’s best all-arounder after winning both Chinese Olympic Trials.

Biles headlines vault with Yurchenko double pike

Possibly the greatest highlight of Tokyo will come from Biles on vault, where she will attempt the Yurchenko double pike in a bid to have it named after her.

While she has already performed it successfully at the domestic GK Classic, she will need to do so again on the international stage for it to become the Biles II.

The skill is arguably the hardest in the world, as no other woman and few men have done the skill. Her 6.6 difficulty score trumps any near by competition, who are mostly carrying 6.0s on the event.

Don’t expect to see the Yurchenko double pike in the vault final, though, as Biles has made clear she wants a touch warm-up if she’s going to attempt it in any final. As it stands now, the International Gymnastics Federation (FIG) controversially doesn’t allow touch warm-ups for event finals.

Instead, Biles is expected to attempt it in either team finals or, more likely, the all-around final.

Biles doesn’t need the Yurchenko double pike in the vault final to defend her 2016 gold medal on the event. Instead, she is expected to opt for the simpler, but still exceptionally difficult, Amanar and Cheng.

The real question is which American will join her in the vault final and, likely, on the podium.

Jade Carey and MyKayla Skinner are both vault specialists and are capable of posting top scores, with one expected to join Biles in the final.

Carey is typically a cleaner and more consistent vaulter, but Skinner’s technique has seen vast improvement over the summer season. At this point, it’s really a toss up on who will come out on top.

There are a few other gymnasts in contention for the bronze medal, including Canada’s Ellie Black or Shallon Olsen and others.

Tight race to gold on uneven bars

Now that two-time reigning Olympic champion Aliya Mustafina (RUS) has retired, the top of the uneven bars podium is open for a new queen to take the thrown, and Suni Lee is ready for her inauguration.

Lee boasts the hardest uneven bar routine in the world with an incredible 6.8 D-score routine. If she hits the whole routine with all of her connections, she a shoo-in for the podium.

This event sees one of the more competitive races to first, with Belgium’s Nina Derwael right on Lee’s heels.

The two-time reigning World champion is looking to bring home Belgium’s first-ever Olympic medal in women’s gymnastics with her performance, which boasts a 6.7 D-score.

Another gymnast to watch is China’s Fan Yilin, who bid her way into the Olympics through the Individual Apparatus World Cup Series, taking the win on bars. The 21-year-old has posted scores above 15 throughout the year, which is a solid benchmark to top most of the competition.

Any mistakes from the top three gymnasts will open the door for the ROC. Listunova, Urazova and Melnikova will again battle it out for one of two maximum Russian spots in the final.

Team USA’s Biles or Grace McCallum are likely to be the second American joining Lee in the bars final, but they have an outside chance of medalling.

Three gymnast toss-up on beam

Back in Rio, beam was the only event Biles qualified for that she did not win. A gold medal favorite, her bronze medal on the event was attested to grabbing the beam to steady herself during her rotoutine.

Since then, Biles has regained her dominance on the event and has added the hardest dismount ever done on beam: a double-twisting double back. The skill, which is one of four currently named after her, boosts her scoring potential into gold medal territory once again.

Netherland’s Sanne Wevers, the reigning Olympic champion, will be looking to defend her title in Tokyo, but based off results in recent years, Wevers is unlikely to make it to the podium again.

More fierce competition will come from China’s Guan Chenchen and Ou Yushan. Both athletes have the potential to score above 15, making this event a toss-up for gold between them and Biles.

USA’s Lee is not to be left out of the conversation either, as she will probably be the second American to qualify for the final. If she’s on her game and it’s an off day for others, Lee could find herself with another medal on this event.

US to dominate floor exercise

Once again, Biles is projected to win floor with her jaw-dropping performance of the world’s most difficult skills.

Her jam-packed routine includes two original moves, beginning with the Biles II, a triple-twisting double-back. She follows that up with none other than the Biles I: a double-layout with a half-twist out.

Following Biles on the podium will likely be specialist Jade Carey.

Carey has submitted and could perform an upgraded version of the Biles II, doing the skill in the laid-out position rather than tucked. If done successfully, Carey will have that version named after her and will surpass Biles with the highest-valued skill in the Men’s and Women’s Code of Points, as the skill has provisionally been awarded a K-value.

Even without the laid-out triple-double, Carey’s floor routine, which featured three upgraded passes at podium training, has silver medal potential.

Suni Lee also made upgrades at podium training, adding a fourth pass – a double layout – to her routine.

ROC’s Angelina Melnikova is the front runner to join the Americans on the podium. Two-time Olympian Vanessa Ferrari of Italy is also strong on the event.

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